1 - Buy Now or Wait For Prices to Drop

BUY NOW OR WAIT FOR PRICES TO DROP (IF THEY DROP)

Article by Richard J. Freedkin, Realtor - ABR, SRS, RENE

We often hear many buyer clients tell us two things when buying a home.

1) I will wait until prices drop to look for a home

or

2) I’m not paying list price for a home. I will only buy if I can get a discount.

This article covers both scenarios and why those buyers should rethink those strategies.

Let’s talk about the 2nd one first. (I’m not paying list price)

I am the first one who likes to buy things at a discount when it’s feasible. Unfortunately, in the market we have been in during the last two years it is not very feasible. Is it possible? Yes, of course it is, but there must be some key reasons that make it possible.

1st – If the home was way overpriced in the first place, the home may get very few showings, or many actual “market-price offers” that the seller rejects thinking they will get their higher price. So, then the home sits or worse yet, goes under contract at the higher price and then does not appraise out forcing the seller renegotiate a lower price with the buyer or placing the home back on the market. In this market a home that isn’t sold within the first couple of days on the market quickly gets the stigma of “what’s wrong with it”? Even if there is nothing wrong with the home other than it was overpriced to begin with, that becomes the perception. In these cases, if the home has been on the market for 30 days or more, it may be possible to get it at a lower price. These situations in this market however are far and few between.

2nd - The second reason you may get a discount is that there are actually some problems with the home and even if the home is priced right, when buyers do their home inspections, they find out all the issues with the home and back out. These homes tend to have more than one contract on them but get put back on the market over and over again. These homes may be picked up at a discount due to its problems but there are not many buyers who want a “fixer-upper”.

For all the other homes on the market, which account for 95% of the homes (probably the type of home you will be looking at), if they are priced right and in decent condition, do not expect to get a below list price offer accepted unless perhaps you are paying ALL cash and have very few, if any, contingencies. In this market you will be competing against other offers – sometimes many other offers and no matter how good we are at negotiating; the seller is out for the highest and best offer and other terms – period!

I can’t tell you how many buyers in this market go looking at home after home after home and only put in offers slightly less or even a lot less than list price because they will only buy if they can get a “deal”. They typically offer a price 3% - 5% lower only to lose out to other home buyers time and time again. They say, I am patient, and I will get my deal!

While they are being “patient”, home prices are continuing to rise and run away from the price point they were looking at.

This is a typical example of what happens. These stories happen to real estate agents everywhere. The prices can vary but the situation is the same.

The clients started looking at homes in October 2020. When they started looking at homes the typical home price of the style and type of home they wanted was around $325,000.

During the months ahead they looked at many homes in that price range and always put in offers slightly less than the list price (ie: 3% - 5% less) and always lost out to other buyers. Again, we hear, “I am in no rush, when I get my deal, I will get my deal”.

If you look up what prices did from November 2020 to November 2021, they increased approximately 18%!

So, while these buyers were waiting for their 5% great deal price to show up, prices were escalating higher and higher. By the end of 2021, that same $325,000 home was now selling for $386,750.

If a buyer offered 5% less on the now $386,750 priced home, and if they were lucky enough to get their offer accepted, they ended up paying ~ $367,500. 

Just imagine if the same buyer one year before when that same house was selling for $325,000, offered slightly above list price like everyone else (ie: $330,000) and got their offer accepted, how much more money they would have saved instead of trying to hold out for that elusive discount. They would have saved over $30,000 compared to current prices. 

It just doesn’t make sense in a market like this to wait and hold out.

Now, here in 2022, home prices are not looking like they will escalate at a 18% year over year rate. But as long as there are more buyers than sellers (a sellers’ market) which is still predicted for the foreseeable future, there will be upward pressure on prices and still multiple offers to contend with. 

Predictions are for somewhere between 8% to 12% home price escalations. How does that 3% to 5% discount fare with that all going on? 

Still not a smart option.

Let us now look at the other situation – the “I will wait for prices to drop” scenario. 

Well, we still have to deal with the same appreciation issue discussed above, so if prices increase only another 8% over the next year, how long will a buyer want to wait until prices fall back that 8% plus more to get back to where they were a year ago? 3 years? 5 years? How long do these home buyers want to continue renting and getting nothing for it? Or if they own a home, they will also start to lose their equity by waiting. Either way, still a no-win scenario to wait.

Lastly on this same point, while home prices are predicted to still increase this year, so are mortgage rates. Interest rates at the end of last year (2021) we in the high 2’s or low 3’s. The federal reserve has indicated that due to inflation, they intend three to four interest rate increases this year (2022) bringing mortgage rates to possibly around 4%.

if you know anyone looking to hold off on a purchase for all the above reasons, you may want to share this with them.

While there may be some pressure taken off the current inventory crunch from the expiration of the mortgage moratorium and resulting potential foreclosures, experts predict it will only make a small dent in the inventory shortage which will still keep upward pressure on prices. We may see no price drops at all and a continuation of the same price escalations we have been seeing the last couple of years (although they may be at a slightly slower rate of escalation discussed above). 

As long as there are more buyers than sellers, prices will continue to be put under pressure to increase. Waiting for prices to fall may be a futile exercise and even if they do, should mortgage rates increase (which they will), any benefits from slightly lower prices (if any) will be offset dramatically by higher interest rates.

The answer... Do not wait to purchase a home.

Take a look at the effect higher rates will have on offsetting lower prices.

You will see that even a 25K drop in price will still end up costing more per month if interest rates go up by about 1%.

The bottom line, it makes no sense to wait for lower prices and it makes no sense to continually try to negotiate a lower price for a home unless it has been on the market for a while due to being overpriced to begin with or it has some issues with it. 

Take a look at the two expamples below. 

Purchase a home now at the current prices but with lower interest rates or:

Wait for prices to drop (which they will probably only continue to increase for the foreseeable future) and pay a higher rate.

Which scenario below makes more sense? 

AND 

What if prices continue to rise AND you have higher interest rates? You Doubly lose!

Questions about Buying a Home?

Give me a call!

Richard "RJ" Freedkin, Realtor

(847) 922-8423

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